Experts commenting on the devaluation of the hryvnia

The dollar has become popular again – because of the increased demand in the interbank market, its price peaked in early 2010. Now, the National Bank will be difficult to maintain the hryvnia, the newspaper “Kommersant-Ukraine” in the article “Dollar back in 2010-th.”
Yesterday, at the interbank foreign exchange market the dollar peaked in the last 2.5 years, the newspaper notes. Market participants explained that the increase was caused by yesterday’s repayment of domestic treasury bonds in the amount of 2.16 billion USD. The last time such a large volume of redemption took place May 16 – 2.3 billion USD. The next major redemption – 2.2 billion USD – is scheduled for September 12.
In the course also influenced by the fact that the expectations of foreign exchange inflows in connection with the matches of Euro 2012 is not justified. None of this question does not comment on credit institutions. But in informal conversations treasurers of all surveyed banks stated that, despite the arrival of foreign fans, a significant inflow of foreign currency in exchange offices are not marked.
The pressure on the course and have the rumors of the impending devaluation of the hryvnia due to the parliamentary elections . All these factors are spurring demand for the currency among the population. “In May, I had a similar jump in the dollar, when the resident withdrawal. This has led to increase in demand at retail. But the demand can not be infinite, at some point, the hryvnia will end, and the course may flatten, “- said the treasurer one of the banks. Especially since the growth rate is disadvantageous to the elections . “Elections – is a painful subject. And the National Bank will gradually lower the rate, “- says President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Oleksandr Okhrimenko.
At the same time, the National Bank is still able to neutralize the dollar jumps. “Balance of payments until the norm, until August impairments should not be. But in August and September may appear more fundamental reasons for the growth of the dollar “, – says head of analysis of financial markets ING Bank Ukraine Alexander Pecheritsyn.
In addition, the course will depend on Ukraine’s debt repayment. “A serious threat to the stability of hryvnia is not – it will not appear until autumn, when the seasonal decline in the price of steel and the Ukraine are coming significant amounts of external payments”, – predicts Head of Economic Research Erste Bank Marian Zablocki.
According to experts, in the future everything will depend on the ability of the central bank to keep the rate of manual methods. And experts doubt that you have sufficient resources to do so. “We control few resources to keep the course. There are $ 30 billion in international reserves, but if they fall below $ 22 billion, it will be a critical point and the risk to the economy , – says Alexander Ohrimenko.- Spend can be $ 8 billion, but they must be taken into account in the calculations for natural gas. “

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